How the Yankees and Rays match up in the ALDS – with a series prediction

EDGE: RAYS

STARTING PITCHING

The Rays ranked third in the majors in rotation ERA (3.51), making them one of the only teams that can approach the MLB-best Yankees (3.30) in that area.

Rays Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen is a notorious Yankee killer, boasting a 5-2 record and an 1.81 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) against them.

After struggling with the Mets, trade-deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta righted the ship with the Rays, pitching to a 0.96 ERA over his final five starts en route to September AL Pitcher of the Month honors.



EDGE: YANKEES

BULLPEN

The Yankees pitched to the second-best bullpen ERA in the majors (3.15) in the regular season, even with a low strikeout rate (8.49 per nine innings) and an overreliance on closer David Bednar and leverage arms Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick.

The unit looks even stronger in the playoffs, with starter Will Warren flashing in his new relief role so far and hard-throwing rotation mate Ryan Weathers potentially joining him in the ALDS bullpen after a forearm flexor strain.

The Rays, meanwhile, employ arguably the AL’s best closer in Bryan Baker, who pitched to a 1.44 ERA and 41 saves in 44 chances. The right-hander converted his final 30 save opportunities.

But the Rays’ bullpen is shakier behind Baker, as the unit as a whole pitched to a 3.99 ERA and averaged 8.40 strikeouts per nine innings this season.


EDGE: YANKEES

MANAGER

The Rays’ Kevin Cash (2015) and the Yankees’ Aaron Boone (2018) are the longest-tenured active AL managers, and they have both overseen plenty of winning.

But this year was especially strong for both Boone and Cash.

After many picked the Rays to finish last in the AL East, Cash maximized the talent on his team and found ways to win, even with some clear roster deficiencies.

Boone, meanwhile, helped keep the Yankees afloat as paramount players such as Judge, Fried and Giancarlo Stanton missed considerable time.

Both deserve consideration for AL Manager of the Year.



EDGE: PUSH

FINAL VERDICT

The Rays narrowly won the head-to-head season series over the Yankees (7-6) and have home-field advantage in this series. Their contact-oriented approach figures to play well in late-inning situations this October.

It would surprise no one if the Rays represented the AL in the World Series.

But the Yankees posted a much better run differential (+138) than the Rays (+86) in the regular season, suggesting a higher upside — an upside they demonstrated during their Wild Card Series demolition.

The Yankees path to the ALCS isn’t easy but it’s relatively straightforward: If they can win both of Schlittler’s starts, they would need to take only one of the other three games against Tampa.


PREDICTION: YANKEES IN 5


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